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Discussed in this piece:

1) Why prediction market resolution is hard to solve for live sports
2) The oracle infrastructure that makes it possible
3) What new trading behaviour this unlocks

This piece is written and researched by Omar El Safy, and edited by Pet Berisha.

Sports have taken prediction markets by storm.

If we park the 'is this gambling?' question for a second, the volumes and their accelerated growth are real.

But within the sports category, the minutiae are not often discussed. There is a variety of customer types taking to these exchanges, and they are optimising for different things.

Bettors, traders, high-frequency AI agents, market makers... these are different customers all using the same type of exchange built for the retail user.

But there is one big thing: if you're betting or trading on live sports, what you need is speed.

Let's say it's Germany vs Argentina in the World Cup. You put a trade on Argentina to score first. They score in the 7th minute. On Polymarket, you wait for the 90-minute whistle, then a couple of hours of optimistic resolution before your winnings land.

On PRED, your winnings are back by the 10th minute, and you're placing your next trade.

Pet sat down with Amit Mahensaria, co-founder and CEO of PRED, a sports-native prediction exchange, to understand why that gap exists and what's being built to close it.

The two biggest players, Polymarket and Kalshi, were not built for in-play, rapid resolution.

A large reason is that they are general-purpose prediction markets, covering everything: elections, macro events, crypto prices, sports.

When a market expires on Polymarket, it uses an Optimistic Oracle, built by UMA Protocol. This oracle confirms whether an outcome is true, a yes or a no. Anyone can dispute it. If they do, UMA token holders vote. That process takes hours.

On Kalshi, it's different. Their own team determines the outcome and posts it after the event. Faster than Polymarket's dispute window, but still a wait until the event finishes. Then resolve.

That works fine for elections. It doesn't work for in-play events.

70% of sports trading happens on match day, in live play (Sportradar). 

A goal in the 7th minute resolves one market and opens another. 

A yellow card in the 23rd does the same.

The resolution needs to keep up with the game. Neither platform was built to do that.

PRED has done something which is, respectively, quite Lindy (time-tested) 

They have partnered with Genius Sports, one of the two major sports data providers that have been running this infrastructure since the early 2000s; the other is Sportradar.

Combined, they cover over 1 million events per year across 70 sports, with over 2,100 clients and partners globally (Sportradar, 2025). Between them, they hold exclusive data rights to the NFL, English Premier League, NCAA, and dozens of top-tier leagues globally.

Listed on the NYSE, Genius Sports has extended its exclusive NFL data partnership through the 2029-30 season (Genius Sports / Reuters, 2025), which means they maintain rights across data, streaming, and other mediums of fan engagement.

The signs are clear that these data providers are extending their reach into prediction markets. Recently, Kalshi announced a multi-year global data partnership with Sportradar, making them the official data provider across MLB, NHL, MLS, and UFC markets.

When an event occurs during a game, Sportradar or Genius Sports captures it instantly. That data feeds into PRED's smart contract, and the market resolves onchain.

Web2 data feeds, Web3 settlement.

The comparison to DeFi is useful. Oracle providers like Chainlink and Redstone have spent years bringing real-world asset data onchain so tokenised funds and treasuries can trade against live prices. PRED's oracle does the same for match events, resolving in seconds rather than hours.

"Market resolution determines the integrity of a prediction market," as Amit puts it. Two recent cases show what happens when it fails.

In both cases, the oracle was not built for the market it was resolving.

Well, it changes the waiting time for a user. But it also changes:

If you imagine your winnings landing quickly, you can cash out or stake them again on whatever comes next.

As Amit puts it: "if the event happens in the seventh minute of the match, you get your money back by the tenth."

That difference between getting paid in minutes on PRED and waiting hours for a typical Polymarket market to settle.

What that resolution speed is doing is changing who these platforms are being built for.

By comparison, equities traders don't come to an exchange for information. They research elsewhere and come to execute. By contrast, in sports prediction markets, the signal and the market are collocated. Meaning the event data and the trade are on the same screen.

That is a completely different trading environment, and it demands different tooling.

In-play exchange trading isn't new. Sportsbooks like Betfair have been doing it since 2000. But for prediction markets, it is. Betfair has been running fiat settlement with sub-minute market resolution. 

But the sports trader who wants onchain, composable, intra-match prediction markets has not had a venue built for them.

When a venue like that exists, it unlocks three things: new markets, new users, and new behaviour.

The markets that become possible are different.

With a venue like PRED within a single match, it can now offer hundreds of correlated in-play markets: team to score first, next player to score, next yellow card. Each resolves within minutes and opens the next position.

And that changes who shows up.

The person is not the occasional bettor who punts once a month. 

It's not the shops, hedge funds, or OTC desks trading pre-match through an API.

PRED is building for prediction markets, for the frequent traders such as:

All three align in that they have always felt the house edge. They've been looking for a venue where that changes.

When that type of user has the right venue, the behaviour changes.

They run multiple trades in a single match, compounding in real time as payouts land and go straight back into the next position.

PRED’s private beta has already thrown up something interesting: around 86% of invited traders are still active, albeit on a small user base that’s only been live for a few months.

The closest comparison in prediction markets is on Polymarket and Kalshi, where traders already bet on whether BTC will finish higher or lower over the next 5 to 15 minutes, then roll straight into the next window.

It’s the same logic: short horizon, fast resolution.

(1) The oracle system is an improvement.

PRED is using two of the largest sports data providers in the world. Sportradar and Genius Sports have been running this infrastructure since the early 2000s.

That is better than a governance vote among UMA token holders.

PRED has not eliminated oracle risk. They have outsourced it to providers with better track records.

(2) Fast resolution does not equal liquid markets.

The cold start problem. A live sports exchange running hundreds of correlated markets per match needs depth across all of them at once.

Early adopters retain at 86%, but retention and liquidity are different things. This will be one of their biggest challenges, and it applies to all prediction markets at launch.

(3) Sportsbooks have already solved most of the front end.

Amit's own words: "I am a big fan, though I hate Sportsbook... they've done a wonderful job in solving Sports UX."

The experience PRED is building toward looks a lot like what sportsbooks already offer today.

The difference is the model: no house, peer-to-peer pricing, no wick. But sportsbooks have distribution, brand, and years of trust with the exact customer PRED is targeting.

High-speed resolution makes possible a participant type that has never had a venue in sports markets before. A venue for the experienced trader who thinks in market dynamics. 

This newsletter is for informational purposes only and is not financial, business or legal advice. These are the author's thoughts & opinions and do not represent the opinions of any other person, business, entity or sponsor. Any companies, platforms, markets or projects mentioned are for illustrative purposes unless specified.

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It's crucial to provide our readers with clear information regarding the inherent nature of services and products that might be covered in this newsletter, including those advertised by our sponsors from time to time. When you trade on prediction markets (including event contracts, opinion markets and other speculative instruments) your capital is at risk. Risks associated with prediction markets include price volatility, loss of capital (the value of your position could drop to zero), illiquidity, complexity, evolving regulation and lack of protection. Many prediction market operators do not currently operate in a fully regulated industry, and availability varies by jurisdiction. Therefore, please be aware that when you place funds on prediction markets, you may not be protected under financial compensation schemes and protections typically afforded to investors when dealing with regulated and authorised entities to operate as financial services firm. Nothing in this newsletter constitutes a recommendation to place, hold, or close any position on any market.